Over at this post on Andrew Coyne's blog, I blather about the Monty Hall problem and how it doesn't apply to Deal or No Deal:
Just a note for those who might try to apply this logic to Deal or No Deal: don't. I had a long argument with a drunk statistician (full disclosure: I was also drunk) about whether you should switch briefcases at the end of Deal or No Deal, ie. when there is only the briefcase you chose at the beginning of the game and one other left. The Monty Hall problem logic does not apply because Howie Mandel does not open the briefcases and does not know where the $1 million is.Meanwhile, over at this post on Zoilus, I defend Avril Lavigne's new video for Girlfriend:
The statistician said I was wrong, but a) she was drunk and b) I had this confirmed by probability dude Jeffrey Rosenthal at U of T when I interviewed him about Deal or No Deal last spring. Also, she was just wrong. Alas, there was a group of people around and all sided with the statistician, because a) I was drunk and b) she's a statistician. It was a very frustrating evening because, though the statistician was very attractive, I would not let it drop. It was almost as bad as the time I was nearly arrested after a quiz night where I got a question "wrong" by answering that Canada was a non-European monarchy. Arrested because... well, let's not get into it.
Point being: JUST BECAUSE SOMEONE IS A STATISTICIAN OR A QUIZMASTER DOES NOT MEAN THEY ARE ALWAYS RIGHT. Or, something like that.
I am not drunk at this particular moment, just FYI.
See, I didn't see it as nerdy vs. cool, but conservative vs. rebellious. But it can be read either way. that's the problem, teen styles that seem obviously conformist to adults often seems "alternative" to teens - and vice versa. Nerd can be cool or outcast depending on perception, likewise black-haired rocker chick. Is it even possible to identify outcasts anymore? Isn't teen culture as fragmented as the rest of the culture ?
Back to the video, what's interesting to me in the double-casting (triple-casting, if you consider the omnipotent narrating blonde Avril) is that now the song is about Avril's inner battle to be "your girlfriend," which apparently means dying your hair black and behaving like a hoodlum. She wants to get you in the portapotty for a quickie, but her prissy/nerdy self is unable to, so she has to fight that restrained part of herself off. It's a coming of age story, in a way.